AGARILOADINGSENTIMENT—AGARILOADINGSENTIMENT—AGARILOADINGSENTIMENT—
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How It Works

Call where a stock closes its Window. Trade UP or DOWN with tUSDC. Settle on a signed price, on-chain.

Getting Started

Connect & Fund

Connect any Solana wallet — Phantom, Solflare, Backpack — on devnet. Get test funds sends a little SOL for fees when your wallet is short, then mints the venue’s test tUSDC to you in one signature. SOL pays network fees.

Pick a Window

Each Window is a stock — TSLA, NVDA, AAPL and six more — on a cadence lane the venue lists: 5m, 15m and 1h through the session, the overnight Gap, and the 24/7 token lane. A basket, a small group of pre-IPO companies bet on together, runs on that 24/7 lane too, scored as an index in points rather than a price. The line is the opening print, the signed price recorded at the open of the round.

Trade UP or DOWN

Go UP if the Window closes at or above its opening print, DOWN if below — a close exactly on the line pays UP. Stake in tUSDC and see the exact quote for your size before you sign.

Collect Payout

When the Window closes, a signed price for that second is recorded on it. Winning contracts redeem for 1 tUSDC each less the settlement fee; losing contracts pay 0; a void pays 0.5 to both sides. Collect it on the Window's result, or everything at once from Portfolio.

Payout Example

Worked example — not a live quote

64¢
UP price
36¢
DOWN price
1.00
Max payout / contract
You buy100 UP @ 64¢ eachTSLA closes at or above the lineYou get100 tUSDC(+36 tUSDC before the settlement fee)

Sessions & Lanes

A stock exchange keeps hours, so the venue does too. Windows are listed in three lanes on the NYSE clock, and which lanes are on the board right now depends on the hour you are reading this.

Regular

5m · 15m · 60m · NYSE hours

Windows run back to back while US markets are open, 09:30 to 16:00 ET, Monday to Friday. A 5m Window opens on the five-minute mark and settles five minutes later; 15m and 60m run the same way on their own marks. The venue lists nothing outside the session, and an early close ends the lane early.

Gap

Friday close → Monday open

One Window a week across the weekend. Calls open at Friday's 16:00 ET close, the Window locks Sunday 20:00 ET, and it settles on Monday's first regular-session print at 09:30:00 ET — the opening print of the new session, not the opening cross.

Token

24/7 · xStocks

Tokenised stock on Solana — TSLAx, NVDAx, SPYx, QQQx — keeps trading when the exchange does not, so these Windows run every hour of every day on the same 5m, 15m and 60m cadences. They settle on the token's own signed quote, not the exchange's print.

What the clock says

The session chip, the marquee and every card say the same word about the hour, with a countdown to the boundary that matters. Nothing is ever just “closed”.

Open
: the exchange is trading; Windows open and close on their marks
Pre-market
: before 09:30 ET — listed Windows take calls, none of them fill
After hours
: after 16:00 ET — the session is done and the next open is on the clock
Weekend
: Saturday or Sunday; the Gap Window is the lane that is awake
Holiday
: the exchange is shut for the day, and the chip says so by name
Early close
: a half day — 13:00 ET — and the lane ends with it

Calls before the bell

The venue lists tomorrow's first Windows at tonight's close, so a call can be made while the market is shut. It rests post-only at your price: nothing fills before the open boundary, and if the book comes to you in the first minute after the bell, it fills at the price you set.

  1. Your wallet signs. The stake is held from the moment it rests until it fills, you cancel, or it expires.
  2. An unfilled call expires 90 seconds after the bell by default and the stake returns as venue credit. Resting until the Window locks is opt-in.
  3. No fill is promised. The venue's maker, or any trader, may take a resting call at your price.
  4. The 0.25 tUSDC seat bond comes back once the Window settles, and an unfilled call loses nothing if the Window voids.

Key Mechanics

Order-Book Pricing

A fully on-chain limit order book. UP and DOWN are the two sides of one book, and a UP buy and a DOWN buy can match into a freshly minted complete set — no house takes the other end of your trade.

Live Price

The chart plots the same feed the Window settles on, so the distance to the line is the distance that matters. A tick that has stopped is shown frozen with its age, never as live.

Fast Rounds

Windows run back to back on fixed cadences while their lane is awake. Entries close inside a no-entry buffer before expiry — 40% of the round, never under 30 s or over 5 min — so a call cannot be made after the answer is in.

On-Chain Settlement

Positions are seats on the Window’s ledger, an account the agari-events program owns on Solana. Every fill, settlement and redemption is a transaction anyone can open on the explorer.

How a Price Is Made

Nothing here is modelled. The price of UP is the best offer resting on the book, in cents — which is also the market's probability. DOWN is the same book seen from the other side. A UP buy and a DOWN buy that add up to one dollar can match into a freshly minted pair, so a quote exists from the first second without a market maker.

price(DOWN) = 1 − price(UP)cost = contracts × pricepayout if right = contracts × 1.00
stake
: what you put in
contracts
: how many the book fills for that stake
avg price
: the average fill across the book's levels
max cost
: escrow locked at the protective limit — a fill can never cost more
payout if right
: contracts × 1.00, before the settlement fee
odds
: the price of UP in cents — the market's probability

Every quote is read off the live book for your exact stake, so the cost you see is the cost the book would charge now. Orders go in immediate-or-cancel at a protective limit: what crosses fills, the rest is cancelled, and the escrow locked at that limit is the most a fill can ever cost.

Fee Structure

Settlement Fee

A basis-point skim on winning contracts at redemption, set by the venue per market and read from chain at use time — never assumed. It is printed on every receipt. A void pays 0.5 per side with no fee.

Trading Fees

The venue runs at zero maker and taker fees today; the program supports them and the venue sets 0. Your only cost of entry is the price you pay per contract.

Total Cost

Cost per contract = the book price. Winning contracts pay 1.00 less the settlement fee, so a contract bought under 1.00 always profits if it is right.

Settlement Process

  1. Window Closes
    The round reaches its scheduled expiry — the second its settlement price is asked about.
  2. The Print Is Recorded
    A signed price for that exact second is posted to the Window and verified on-chain: Pyth's own signature, or a RedStone package that at least 3 of 5 configured signers put their names to. Anyone may post it, and nobody can post a price the program has not checked.
  3. Settlement
    The agari-events program compares the closing print with the opening one. Close at or above the open pays UP, and a close exactly on the line pays UP; anything below pays DOWN. Where the policy names a second source, both boundaries are cross-checked first and a gap wider than 25 bps voids the Window instead.
  4. Payout
    Winning contracts redeem for 1 tUSDC less the settlement fee. Redemption is a program call you make — on the Window's result, or everything at once from Portfolio — and an unclaimed seat is cranked so nothing strands.

On-Chain Architecture

Transparent Positions

Your side and size are a seat on the Window’s ledger — one account per Window, one seat per wallet, each side’s contracts counted on it. Every position is verifiable on the explorer.

Instant Finality

Solana confirms in about a second, so a fill is final almost as soon as you sign, and settlement lands as soon as the closing print is on the Window.

Program Settlement

The agari-events program holds the collateral, resolves the Window from the recorded print and pays redemptions. No middleman, and permissionless cranks so funds can never strand.

Halts, Voids & Your Money

Halts

There is no licensed halt feed here, so a lane is halted when the signed price it settles on stops being printable. A Pyth tick wider than 50 bps, or an xStock the issuer has flagged, says “Trading halted”. A feed that has simply stopped — no Pyth tick for 15 s, a RedStone package older than 60 s, three failed token quotes — says “Signed price stale”. Either way the venue lists nothing new and the maker pulls its quotes. A halt never touches the chain, and it is never given as the reason a Window resolved.

Voids

If no reliable print lands inside the settlement window, the Window voids and both sides pay 0.5 — your stake back. The verdict says “Void — no reliable print, both sides pay 0.5”, and one line under it says why: a missing print names the source, the boundary and the deadline it passed; a cross-check divergence names the 0.25% band the two sources fell outside. Redemption credits the venue, the same as a win.

Your money

Everything here is tUSDC on Solana devnet, minted by the venue's faucet — it is worth nothing anywhere else. A deposit into your Trading Balance lets a browser key tap inside caps you set, so a call costs a tap instead of a wallet prompt; that key can never withdraw, only your wallet can. Nothing on the server ever holds a key of yours.

Baskets

A basket is a small group of pre-IPO companies followed together: AI Labs (OpenAI, Anthropic), Frontier AI, Prediction Markets, Defense & Space, and All PreStocks. Each is scored as one equal-weight index in points, base 1,000 at prices frozen when the basket was listed, computed from one PreStocks read of every member. A basket Window is an ordinary one-hour Window on the 24/7 lane: UP if the index closes at or above its opening print, DOWN below. If any member is missing from the read, the Window voids rather than settle on a mixture.

Predict
: an Up/Down Window on the index, with test money
Cover
: hold two or more members and one Down bet covers the basket, sized at 10% of what you hold
Hold
: a desk keeps the basket for you, with real money on Solana mainnet, inside limits you set

How the Desk Decides

A desk is an account on Solana that holds a basket of PreStocks tokens for you while an assistant looks after it. You decide what to own and sign every owner call with your wallet; the desk decides only when; the program enforces the money limits whatever it decides. Here is the order it works in, and which step is the one question a model answers.

  1. It wakes

    Arithmetic

    Every hour on the hour, around the clock, and also when money arrives, when a held company moves 3% within an hour, or when you press Check now. Every wake ends in a written decision, even when nothing was done.
  2. It reconciles

    Arithmetic

    It compares the chain's sequence number and sealed head with its own record before trusting either. Money that arrived from outside re-bases the loss limit; a holding PreStocks has paused or frozen stops the desk.
  3. It values the desk

    Arithmetic

    Cash plus every priced holding, at the half-hour average of the venue's own attested prices. A holding with no price is listed, never valued at zero, and never traded.
  4. It checks your loss limit

    Arithmetic

    If the desk is worth more than your limit below its baseline, it stops everything and tells you. Nothing else runs that hour.
  5. It finds what drifted

    Arithmetic

    Which holdings sit further from their target than you allow, and at least 5.5% because a trade costs about 1.1% each way. Sales first, then buys, largest drift first; a buy never takes cash below your cash target.
  6. It runs the pre-gate

    Arithmetic

    Eleven rules that can stop a candidate before any question is asked: the desk is not active, the name is not allowed, the venue's price is missing or stale, the name is above your premium ceiling, there is no quote at your size, the quote is more than 8% from the venue's price, the price is moving fast, transfers are paused, the account is frozen, the route is too large, or it did the same thing minutes ago.
  7. It asks one question

    The one AI question

    Timing, and only timing: given the evidence, do the whole action now, part of it (25, 50 or 75%), wait, or decline? The answer must fit a strict shape; a promise, a forbidden word or a malformed answer is thrown away and the desk does nothing that hour. The model never chooses what to hold, and never more than the candidate it was shown.
  8. It runs the limits check

    Arithmetic

    Plain arithmetic that mirrors the program, rounding included: your caps, the floor on what must come back, the premium ceiling, a gap of at most 3% from the price's own average and a cost of at most 2.5%. What the chain would refuse is never sent.
  9. It writes first, then acts

    The program on Solana

    The record is written and fingerprinted before anything moves. A practice desk moves its paper ledger at the quote net of PreStocks' 1% fee. A live desk posts the venue's attested price, then sends the buy or sell; the program on Solana checks its own list in order and seals the fingerprint in the same transaction, or refuses the whole thing.
  10. It grades itself a day later

    Arithmetic

    The timing it chose against acting at once, from the hourly prices since. Under 0.25% is “no real difference”. Neutral both ways, never a win stamp.

What the program enforces

Your money
: only you can withdraw, and only to your own wallet's account of that mint
Caps
: a cap per action and a cap per fixed 24-hour window, counted on chain
Names
: only the companies you allowed can be bought; a disallowed one can still be sold
The reference
: a venue-attested price no older than 15 minutes, or nothing trades
The premium
: a buy may not pay more than your ceiling above the PreStocks mark, or above Pyth's valuation index if you require it
The band
: at least 92% of the fair amount must come back, or the transaction fails
Exact spend
: the desk's balance must change by exactly the amount sent, and a desk account slipped into the route fails the trade
The record
: every action, the did-nothing checkpoint included, advances a sealed hash chain in the same transaction

What the desk never does

Withdraw
: it has no instruction that pays anyone but you
Choose what you hold
: the basket, the weights and the cash sleeve are yours; it decides only when
Trade past a limit
: the chain refuses it before any money moves, whatever the desk decided
Act on a stale price
: no fresh attested reference, no trade
Spend in practice
: a practice desk moves a paper ledger and never sends a transaction
Promise a return
: its words are checked against a banned list before they reach you
Hide a quiet check
: every “nothing to do” is written down; those are the proof it was awake

Practice moves no money. A live desk is real money on Solana mainnet, and every desk surface says so.

FAQ

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